Vontobel Holding (VTX:VONN) shareholders have endured a 14% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Vontobel Holding AG (VTX:VONN) shareholders, since the share price is down 24% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 10%.

It’s worthwhile assessing if the company’s economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let’s do just that.

Check out our latest analysis for Vontobel Holding

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years that the share price fell, Vontobel Holding’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.7% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 9% annual reduction in the share price. So it’s likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growthearnings-per-share-growth

earnings-per-share-growth

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Vontobel Holding the TSR over the last 3 years was -14%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Vontobel Holding provided a TSR of 2.0% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 4% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Before forming an opinion on Vontobel Holding you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


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